The Heat are champs, thanks in large part to Dwyane Wade. So where do they go from here? And what do the Mavs have to do to improve? Our experts look forward.
1. Will the Heat repeat?
Greg Anthony, ESPN Insider: Not sure they will, but they are the favorites. I believe Shaq has more left than he showed during the Finals. Pat Riley is the best in the league at motivating, and his ability to tweak the roster puts him in a class by himself. Most important, Dwyane Wade has only scratched the surface in terms of his abilities. Nothing can replace the confidence of being a champion.
Chris Broussard, ESPN Mag: No way I'll guarantee that, but they have as good a chance as anyone. NBA will be wide open next year. Miami, Dallas, S.A., Phoenix and Detroit will be legit contenders, and even Cleveland might sneak into the mix.
Ric Bucher, ESPN Mag: I'm still having a hard time computing that they won the first one. Although anything is clearly possible when you have Dwyane Wade, squeezing another championship run out of 'Zo and GP (not to mention Shaq) just seems too much to ask. And don't underestimate the importance those two played off the bench.
John Hollinger, ESPN Insider: Doubtful. They needed a lot of breaks to get a championship this year and there's a good chance Mourning and Payton will retire. Wade would have to raise his game yet another level for it to happen.
Tim Legler, ESPN Insider: Whether the Heat repeat will be determined by what additions they make to their bench. They must get younger and more athletic. They will face formidable obstacles in Detroit, Cleveland, S.A., Dallas and Phoenix, but as long as they have Wade and Shaq, they will contend.
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Jim O'Brien, ESPN Insider: The Heat will not repeat next year. In my estimation, the Spurs and Pistons are the two best teams. They both got beat and will be totally refocused on winning back the trophy. They each have players that can do decent jobs guarding Wade, and O'Neal will be a year older.
Dan Shanoff, Page 2: Yes. The Finals were a breakthrough, showing the Heat what it takes to be a champion. Shaq's impact may erode by next June, but he didn't have the impact this week everyone thought he would anyway. The NBA is officially in the Wade Era.
Chris Sheridan, ESPN Insider: Hard to say yes to that one at this point because it's just now sinking in that Riley's monster trade last summer helped win him a title. Shaq was really diminished, Payton was cooked, so I don't know. But I'm starting to expect the Pistons to lose Ben Wallace, I don't think the Cavs are ready to take the next step yet, and nobody else in the East jumps out as being better than the Heat are now. So my answer is a definite maybe.
Ken Shouler, ESPN.com: I think they will repeat if they can steer clear of dissension and avoid nagging, aging injuries and missed games. Mourning will be 37, Payton 38 and Shaq 35 -- so Miami is semi-ancient at some key positions. But right now, there is no higher power in the league to dethrone them.
Marc Stein, ESPN.com: Sorry. Ask me in July or August after I've seen how Detroit, San Antonio and the other top contenders respond to the most unpredictable playoffs I can remember. I also want to see what the Heat do to keep the cast around Wade and Shaq fresh and whether Riley stays on as coach. Most of all, I want to see how Amare Stoudemire looks. Look how far Phoenix got without him.
2. What was the Mavs' downfall? Will they overcome it next year?
Anthony: Inexperience and an inability to handle the pressure. Dallas is extremely talented but also very young in two key areas: point guard and center. Devin Harris and DeSagana Diop will learn and improve. The big key is going to be Dirk's ability to improve. You saw the beginning of him starting to impact the paint. His playmaking and ability to score off the dribble have to improve. No reason to think they won't. Look at Nowitzki's improvement as a leader. Dallas could very well be back and be crowned champions.
Broussard: The Mavs reverted to a jump-shooting team, then were terrible in late-game situations. That speaks of a lack of experience, so they should be more poised under pressure next year if they reach the Finals.
Bucher: Their best player, Dirk, doesn't always accept the responsibility of being the best player. Can he? Sure. He made tremendous strides this past season. He's just not there yet, and there's no guarantee he'll ever get there. But after watching J-Will and 'Toine and GP all adjust for the sake of winning a ring, I'm not about to say anything isn't possible.
Hollinger: People will talk about Wade, but Dallas didn't break 100 points in regulation once all series. For a team built on offense, that was a huge disappointment. Based on the 3-point woes, it seems they need one more shooter.
Legler: The biggest problem the Mavericks faced in the Finals was their inability to handle the pressure situations as well as Miami. There were three games in this series decided on the last possession, and Dallas failed to make the plays necessary to capture those defining moments.
O'Brien: The Mavs suffer often because of their lack of inside scoring. Diop and Dampier did fine jobs this year on defense, but they give the Mavs little offensive production. It is also difficult to win the championship with just one star. Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse did nice jobs at different times and Josh Howard is multidimensional, but none are stars.
Shanoff: Whining. It was the refs. It was the league. It was the hotel. It was the exercise bike. It was everything but the Mavs' own fault, apparently. As soon as they pushed responsibility for the series' outcome on external factors, they were in trouble.
Sheridan: Their biggest issue was knocking knees. They had this thing all but won in Game 3, and they blew it, then it was in their heads that they'd blown it and they really blew it. I've never seen a team unravel quite so quickly (although the 2004 Lakers were close), but the experience should serve them well for next year. Problem is, they might not get this chance again anytime soon.
Shouler: When push came to shove, the Mavs didn't have a real identity on offense. Without a key acquisition, I don't think they will overcome that problem. In fourth quarters, they don't execute well and -- despite their on-again, off-again shooting -- end up settling for jump shots too often.
Stein: I was convinced all season that the Mavs' downfall would be their inability to efficiently run their halfcourt offense and create easy shot opportunities for Nowitzki against good playoff defenses. My mistake: I thought Dallas would fall victim to that problem against San Antonio, not Miami. I still have questions about Jason Terry and Devin Harris supplying championship playmaking, but this is a young team that has a lot of room for growth and some pretty significant playoff experience to draw from … positive and negative.
3. Should Shaq and Riley ride off into the sunset?
Anthony: Are you kidding me??? You have Dwyane Wade, this young man has a chance to be regarded as, dare I say it, the best ever. Remember, he's only 24, has Riley as a coach and now knows what it takes to be a champion. The sky is the limit.
Broussard: No way. Both have a shot at winning more rings, I'd say about two. Shaq's not what he once was, but he's still the most dominant post presence around, except for maybe Tim Duncan, and this is a chance for Riley to keep building toward immortality.
Bucher: Riley? He can do whatever he wants, his legacy is assured now. Riley, in his way, was as big a piece of the Heat pulling this upset (or comeback, whatever) as Wade. That might even be worth tricking another team into doing the same.
I'm not sure the same can be said of Shaq. It had to kill him to hear Dan Patrick refer to him as Robin to Wade's Batman at the trophy presentation, but it was certainly true in the Finals. The Heat were, for stretches, a better team with him on the bench. Moving forward, the game is only going to get tougher for the Diesel with the increased use of zones, putting a greater premium on agile bigs who can space the floor. Shaq won't bid adieu now because he's got $80 million coming, but it would be nice to remember him in the light we see him in now. I can't imagine that light getting any more flattering.
Hollinger: I'd expect Riley to more than Shaq. This is what Riley came to Miami for (and New York before that), and now that he's done it, I think he can walk away. Shaq still has some good years left, though -- not to mention four well-compensated ones -- so he shouldn't be in as big a hurry.
Legler: Riley and Shaq should and will recharge their batteries and make an attempt to repeat. For Shaq, he is still a dominant force, the best center in the game. And he has the perfect complement in Wade, in terms of talent and character. For Riley, he enjoyed this ride more than any other of his career, and he will relish the challenge of retooling his roster and competing for another ring.
O'Brien: Absolutely not. Riley has proven he is up to the task by getting them to the championship and Shaquille O'Neal is getting older but the whole league is still focused on him every night out. Shaq will be a force until his contract runs out in a few years.
Shanoff: No. The champion's mentality demands that they both return to make a defense. That would be as silly as me retiring as a prognosticator because I picked Riley as my NBA Coach of the Year back in November when he was still parked in the team's front office.
Sheridan: That would be a nice ending, but it's too soon for an ending for both of them. I expect both to stick around for at least two more years, and I expect both to relish the challenge of repeating. Sure was different seeing Shaq so diminished, though.
Shouler: No, Riley will always be game for another run, and Shaq's pride is on the line. We've watched the "Big Aristotle" transform into a minor medieval figure for two consecutive "last" series. In '05, he was gassed against Detroit in the conference finals. His mates keeping the ball from him in endgame situations because of his abominable foul shooting should be a source of embarrassment.
Stein: If Riley wants to leave the bench after finally winning another ring, who could blame him? No matter what you think of the whole Stan Van Gundy saga, Riley did endure countless tortures in Miami before this season in a forever quest to end his title drought. So if he decides to step down now, having waited almost two decades for this moment, I'd say he's more than entitled. Same goes for Alonzo Mourning, because I'm from the Seinfeldian School of going out on a high. Not in Shaq's case, though. His job will only get easier as Wade gets better. Look what Wade did in Year 3; how good will he be in 2009? If I were Shaq, I'd stick around for three or four more years and see what happens.
4. What is Wade's place in NBA history, and how does he compare to Michael Jordan?
Anthony: I felt the comparisons were premature, but after watching Wade's performance in the Finals, those comparisons are fair. There have been many second comings to His Airness. Penny, Kobe, Vince, T-Mac, LeBron, and now D-Wade. Kobe is talented enough and possesses the killer instinct, but the question for me is, "Would he ever be smart enough?" Vince, again talented enough, but not sure his will is good enough. LeBron, different animal altogether.
But with Wade, we have a young man with the talents, will and smarts to evolve into possibly the man future greats will be compared to. If his first performance is any indication, Dwyane is ahead of the game.
Broussard: Wade is building toward a historic career. To me, his comp is not Michael but LeBron and particularly Kobe. The way I see it, Dwyane and Kobe are vying for second place on the list of all-time great two guards (LeBron being a three and with all due respect to Zeke from Cabin Creek).
I can't compare D-Wade winning a title with Shaq to MJ doing it several times without a dominant big man. Also, MJ dominated an era when there were dominant big men (real post players) in the league. There are only two dominant big men now, and one of them is Wade's teammate. For the most part, he's playing against a league of perimeter finesse players, which makes him likely to be more dominant with more gaudy numbers. So Mike is still alone on the throne.
Bucher: Wade, as of right now, is the best player in his draft class and on the verge of being as unstoppable as any guard in the league. Yes, better than LeBron and better than Carmelo. Let's retire the Jordan comparison, shall we? A scoring guard wins a ring, he's the next Jordan. Wade doesn't come close to playing D the way Jordan did, for starters. Maybe he will and maybe he can, but right now he doesn't.
Hollinger: Wade's place right now isn't with Jordan -- it's with Rick Barry and Bill Walton and other guys who dominated a single Finals. If he does it a few more times, then we can talk about the Jordan comparisons more realistically. It's hard to project, because much of it will depend on Wade's ability to withstand the constant pounding he takes.
Legler: Wade's performance has to rank among the all-time greatest performances in NBA Finals history. At just 24 years old, he became a superstar and leader right before our eyes. His numbers were sensational, but it was his will and courage to make plays under pressure we will be talking about for years to come.
O'Brien: He can approach Jordan but still has a ways to go. His outside shot is not as consistent. Jordan was the best defensive player in the league, by far. Jordan won six rings, so Wade has some catching up to do in this category.
Shanoff: Top 50. Has Wade catapulted himself into an updated version of the NBA's All-Time Top 50? Purists would freak, but if you held an all-time fantasy draft to put together a team, using all players in NBA history, I'll bet he'd be among the first 50 players picked. Meanwhile, it's hard to compare him to MJ until Wade collects a few more rings. However, Wade has him in at least one way: It took Wade only three seasons to carry his team to a title.
Sheridan: Let's wait and see. He's 24, so he has won a title sooner than Michael did, and he has a lot left. It wouldn't surprise me if he won four or five titles, but getting to six and matching Michael? I'm not ready to say he's that good yet. I'm not going to forget those two free throws he missed last night that would have iced the game.
If Jason Terry had hit that 3 at the end and the Mavs had gone on to win, it would have gone down as a much more massive choke job than Dirk's in Game 3. But the shots he's able to make, and the way he has improved his jumper, he has looked a lot like Mike. But as I said, he has a ways to go.
Shouler: Since he just led a team to a world championship in his third year, Wade joins all-time greats such as George Mikan (first year), Bill Russell (first), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (second), Magic Johnson (first) and Larry Bird (second). Still, he hasn't stood their test of time. Places in history also can be earned statistically, like Wilt Chamberlain's third-year 50.4 scoring average. Wade doesn't own such numbers.
He's not Jordan. In his third year (1987), Jordan averaged 37 points, five rebounds and four assists and was the first at any position to log 200 steals and 100 blocks. Wade's 27, 6 and 6 don't come close. Jordan played 15 years; Wade must play 10 before comparisons are made.
Stein: Wade already has a unique place in history. Riles' drought might have never ended if he didn't land this kid with the No. 5 pick in 2003. The Diesel? If Wade didn't take over the Dallas series, Shaq would be only a pedestrian 3-3 in six career trips to the Finals. Mourning? Gary Payton? Antoine Walker? Wade put all of them in position to be champions. This is a different league -- Wade's Heat didn't have multiple East powerhouses in their way like Jordan's Bulls did -- but let's just say he's way ahead of schedule for a third-year swingman.
5. Is Wade the best player in the NBA?
Anthony: When you have the title, until someone takes his belt, I'd have to say yes. Remember, he was beyond great. No one, and I mean no one, could be any better than D-Wade was in the Finals. He is the best, period.
Bucher: How fun is it to have to downgrade a guy after such a thrilling championship performance before the champagne has even evaporated from his clothes? This is the kind of question that makes writers look like jerks. And with that: No. Kobe's defense and 3-point range still give him the edge. For now.
Hollinger: Based on the regular season, I wasn't sure. I wrote that he was the MVP, but changed my mind after he slumped in the final month. However, given how he raised his game so much in June, he has to be considered the gold standard until further notice.
Legler: Wade is one of the top five players in the game, but it is difficult to declare him the greatest. He is, however, the best pure scorer in the league right now. He still needs to work on his defensive impact and consistency.
O'Brien: He is right up there with Kobe Bryant and LeBron James, who would also have won the championship if they were surrounded by the rest of the Heat. Physically, Kobe is the best of the bunch, but Wade brings a mental and physical combination that might give him the edge.
Shanoff: Yes. If you factor in a complete combination of skills, "clutch," likability and -- now -- winning, no player in the NBA is greater right now. He has the ring LeBron doesn't have; the likability Kobe doesn't have; the "clutch" Dirk doesn't have; and the more all-around skills Nash doesn't have.
Sheridan: No. Kobe Bryant is, if you want to base it on pure talent. If I want one player taking the last shot for a title, it's Kobe. Furthermore, if I had to pick one player from the draft class of '03 to build a team around, I'd take LeBron because of his size, shooting and ballhandling superiority. That's not to denigrate Wade, but he's not the best. Not yet, anyway. But he is close.
Shouler: As the flavor of the month in a league where the title "best player" seems to change almost weekly, Wade currently deserves the honor because he just led his team to a title. But this is subject to change if LeBron James has a similar stellar series or Kobe Byrant approaches another 81-point game.
Stein: Best player on the team that won it all. Well-liked by his teammates. Convinced Shaq to defer. Add it all up and it sounds like Wade has a case. And if games continue to be called this way, with limited defensive contact on the perimeter to favor the dynamic drivers, how can you argue otherwise?
6. If the Mavs and Heat were to play the NBA Finals over again, starting this weekend, who would win?
Anthony: Heat. Pure and simple: They have Dwyane Wade, and Dallas doesn't.
Bucher: Four-game sweep, Heat. By Game 6, the Mavs proved no lead was big enough. They lost the series when they failed to close the Heat out in Game 3. From that point on, Miami knew if it could keep it close, it could out-execute the Mavs down the stretch, despite being worse free-throw shooters and rebounders. They didn't know that going into the series.
Hollinger: It's a toss-up. Look at it this way -- there were three 50-50 games, and the Heat managed to win all three. I'm not sure that happens in our parallel universe, especially with four of the seven games in Dallas and Stackhouse available in all seven.
O'Brien: I picked the Heat in six before this series started and I would do it again. Unless they had to start it today, right after playing these past six, then the Mavs' depth would have an impact. This late in the year the Heat would be spent.
Shanoff: Heat in 4. If both teams took the experiences of the past six games into their new series, the Heat would win in four games. At this point, the Mavs have been broken psychologically: The fact that Miami, after those losses in Games 1 and 2, was able to go into Dallas when the Mavs were in a must-win situation and beat them is the biggest indicator.
Sheridan: Heat in 6 would be my prediction, not that lame Mavs in 7 pick I made a couple of weeks ago before getting a better handle on their mental frailty under pressure.
Shouler: The Heat would win in six (or fewer) games again. Riley would outthink Avery Johnson again; his defense rendered Dirk Nowitzki irrelevant, shrinking him from season averages of 26 points on 48 percent shooting to 22 points on 39 percent shooting. Also, Dallas still wouldn't have an answer for Wade.
Stein: Heat in four. Who would ever doubt these guys?
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